September 24, 2007
UNIT 6: Classification and DiversityWill There Be Another Flu Pandemic Soon?
The last flu pandemic ended in 1968; it was the third flu pandemic of the 20th century. Experts at the World Health Organization (WHO) believe that we are closer to another flu pandemic than any time since then. However, there is no way to predict when a pandemic will hit because each past pandemic was very different. National and multinational organizations must use other tools to anticipate and prepare for a grave public health threat.
The WHO uses a pandemic alert system to track whether a new virus strain is at risk to start a pandemic. The alert system runs from phase 1, which stands for no new virus strain infecting humans, to phase 6, describing a pandemic. Moving from one phase of alert to another is the decision of the Director-General of WHO and is influenced by the characteristics of the virus and how easily it is spread, among other things. The world is now in phase 3, characterized by the new influenza virus subtype H5N1 avian flu. Bird flu, as it is known, causes disease in humans but does not spread from human to human efficiently or sustainably.
There are different goals, actions, and policy decisions for each stage of the WHO phases. These range from preparedness, use of isolation or quarantine and vaccinations and antiviral medications to the maintainence of civil order in a pandemic period.
Another tool used by organizations is computer modeling. Currently there are computer models that simulate pandemics in the United States and other countries. The models are based on previous pandemic information and help officials when drafting preparedness plans. Researchers continue to refine their models and test scenarios as new information becomes available.
With better information and better responses, hopefully the next pandemic won’t take as many lives when it finally strikes.
Comments
Comment from: Jake
November 28, 2010 03:42 PM [#]
Does the pandemic mutate every time it hits?